Let's take the pawns off the chessboard, and just play a game with the 'big pieces'... and remember history:
When April Glaspie passed to Saddam Hussein her instructions from the US State Department, in July 1990., it opened the door for Hussein to attack Kuwait, and the end result was achievement of US bases established in Saudi Arabia, home of the world's greatest oil reserves and? Usama bin Laden. (remember his name-spelling was changed to OSAma after Bush the Lesser became President...)
Some intermingled facts and hypoZENtheticals:
F1: We remember James A Baker III leading, in the supercharged month of November 2000, the scurrilous and unethical aftermath of the election.
H1: There were 'unpublished' reasons that drove the Bush misAdministration to 'march to Iraq' long before September 11. One of those is the move by Saddam Hussein to delineate his oil contracts in Euros, instead of dollars.
F2: The first aggressive act by the USA towards the Taleban, in 2001, occurred not after September 11, but earlier, in July of 2001, when Assist?? Sec'y of State ??? Whoever, who told the ruling Taleban Mullah Omar's representative to reopen negotiations for the UNOCAL transit-pipeline project that had been stalled since 1998, under the alleged threat of (paraphrased) 'take the money we will offer you: a carpet of gold... or a carpet of bombs.'
H2: Whether the World Trade Center, and the Pentagon/Washington DC attacks (mindful of the trajectory of the fourth plane) were aggressive terrorist acts, or preemptively justifiable self-defense depends on the acceptance of our second fact.
F3: Our unending war in Afghanistan, and our unending war in Iraq, were both designed and carried forward by Bush the Lesser and his misAdministration.
H3: That the wars, which have increased Muslim fundamentalism and insurgent-based conflict, and thus are increasing the friction between Muslims and Occidentals.
F4: During the initial war in Iraq, American forces, by direct order of their chain-of-command, guarded with extraordinary efficiency the Ministry of Oil (and Interior!), which housed all information of the State-run oil market, at the same time that all other government installations were ransacked and unguarded.
H4: The military focus of an aggressive State War-action by the US in Iraq, is indicative of its actual intents or motives.
[The threads are starting to ravel]
F5: Sometime in the second or third month of the live war in Iraq, US forces discovered a cache of the most powerful plastic explosive, some 340 tons of this material, and the unit that found it did not remain in control of the stockpile, which was consequently looted by unknown factions of Iraqi nationals or foreign 'insurgents' or... US forces?
H5: Many Iraqi IEDs are sourced from this stolen material, and the possessor of this stockpile of plastic explosive is either ideologically-motivated or profit-oriented.
F6: Suicide bombings, IED manufacturers and car bombing attacks have not ceased to increase in the last two years.
H6: The effect of repetitive car and IED bombings in Baghdad and the other 'hot' parts of Iraq have increased sectarian animosity, and anti-US sentiments.
F7: The Iraqi Shi'ite majority has numerical dominance and has been brutally repressed under years of Sunni-Ba'athist rule; the Iraqi Sunnis correlate with the Saudi Arabian Sunnis, while the Iraqi Shi'ites are close to the Iranian Shi'ites: in the Islamic world, the Sunnis are vastly in the majority.
H7: Failure between Shi'ites and Sunnis to cohabitate in Bush' new Iraq is provoking, and will have, wide repercussions throughout the Islamic world.
F8: The Bush misAdministration has continuously reinforced its intent to 'democratize' both Afghanistan and Iraq.
H8: A democratic Iraqi State could disassociate itself from OPEC.
H9: Two potential forces exist, which could destabilize the global economy:
- the inordinate rise in the cost of petroleum, affecting global commerce and individual discretionary spending;
- a collapse of the US dollar (See Paul Markham on this).
F10: The dollar, as in petro-dollars, is becoming less attractive to global petroleum traders; Euros have become an increasingly valid petroleum-trading currency.
[The raveled thread soon becomes a spool of yarn]
H10: The US is currently involved in a proxy war against Saudi Arabia, for dollar control of a global petroleum market ruled by OPEC.
H11: The recent recall of the Saudi Ambassador from Washington DC is a VITAL fact of the end of 2006...
... if the Sunni-supported minority destabilizes the US occupation, to deprive Iraq of a unified government that could effect a cessation from OPEC, it is in effect supporting petroleum's high price, which is beneficial to the Saudis.
... and the next steps taken by the increasingly insane Bush-Rice-Cheney-Gates misAdministration may only be tempered by strong and positive Democratic Congressional leadership.